{"id":114718,"date":"2026-03-18T01:17:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T01:17:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/elregionalvm.com.ar\/noticias-villa-maria\/?p=114718"},"modified":"2026-03-23T14:19:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T14:19:35","slug":"tiempo-loco-como-elabora-el-pronostico-trimestral-el-servicio-meteorologico-nacional","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/elregionalvm.com.ar\/noticias-villa-maria\/tiempo-loco-como-elabora-el-pronostico-trimestral-el-servicio-meteorologico-nacional\/","title":{"rendered":"[Tiempo Loco] \u00bfC\u00f3mo elabora el pron\u00f3stico trimestral el Servicio Meteorol\u00f3gico Nacional?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

El pron\u00f3stico clim\u00e1tico trimestral se realiza sobre la base del an\u00e1lisis de las previsiones num\u00e9ricas experimentales de los principales modelos globales de simulaci\u00f3n del clima y modelos estad\u00edsticos nacionales, sumado al an\u00e1lisis de la evoluci\u00f3n de las condiciones oce\u00e1nicas y atmosf\u00e9ricas.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Escribe: Mag. Hern\u00e1n Allasia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El pron\u00f3stico que se presenta por el SMN, est\u00e1 basado en un consenso consolidado a partir de esas diversas fuentes. Las acciones tomadas o dejadas de tomar en funci\u00f3n de la informaci\u00f3n contenida en este bolet\u00edn son de completa responsabilidad del usuario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se debe tener en cuenta que las previsiones clim\u00e1ticas se refieren a condiciones medias durante el periodo analizado y no contemplan aquellas singularidades de los eventos de escala subestacional, como por ejemplo intensidad de sistemas frontales, olas de calor o de fr\u00edo, bloqueos atmosf\u00e9ricos u otros condicionantes del \u201ctiempo\u201d que producen aumento o disminuci\u00f3n de la precipitaci\u00f3n y la temperatura, todos ellos de corta duraci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consideraciones a tener en cuenta para una mejor interpretaci\u00f3n del pron\u00f3stico clim\u00e1tico trimestral probabil\u00edstico por consenso del SERVICIO METEOROL\u00d3GICO NACIONAL<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El pron\u00f3stico indica las probabilidades previstas para cada categor\u00eda (SUPERIOR, NORMAL E INFERIOR), en cada regi\u00f3n se\u00f1alada y para el trimestre pronosticado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se observan regiones donde las previsiones num\u00e9ricas experimentales de los principales modelos globales de simulaci\u00f3n del clima y modelos estad\u00edsticos indican diferencias en cuanto a las probabilidades en el pron\u00f3stico estacional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En condiciones neutras del Fen\u00f3meno El Ni\u00f1o Oscilaci\u00f3n del Sur (ENOS) y en zonas sin otros forzantes, se espera que el comportamiento responda a la probabilidad del 33.3 % en cada categor\u00eda (Climatolog\u00eda). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El pron\u00f3stico NO indica valores de la variable pronosticada ni su variabilidad a lo largo del trimestre.  Si, por ejemplo, para una regi\u00f3n determinada el pron\u00f3stico estacional prev\u00e9 las mayores chances de precipitaci\u00f3n en la categor\u00eda inferior, NO es indicativo que no pueda haber eventos de lluvia o inclusive que algunos de ellos puedan ser localmente intensos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se recomienda consultar tanto el pron\u00f3stico diario y la perspectiva semanal para informarse sobre los eventos meteorol\u00f3gicos de alto impacto que no pueden ser previstos en la escala estacional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fuente: <\/em><\/strong>ocla.org.ar<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El pron\u00f3stico clim\u00e1tico trimestral se realiza sobre la base del an\u00e1lisis de las previsiones num\u00e9ricas experimentales de los principales modelos globales de simulaci\u00f3n del clima y modelos estad\u00edsticos nacionales, sumado al an\u00e1lisis de la evoluci\u00f3n de las condiciones oce\u00e1nicas y atmosf\u00e9ricas. Escribe: Mag. Hern\u00e1n Allasia El pron\u00f3stico que se presenta por el SMN, est\u00e1 basado […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":64418,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[4777,3557],"tags":[3491,12344,1509,8699,1040,4740,2168,8700],"class_list":["post-114718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-econotas","category-tercera","tag-lluvias","tag-nina","tag-nino","tag-pronostico-del-tiempo","tag-smn","tag-temperatura","tag-tiempo","tag-tiempo-loco"],"yoast_head":"\n[Tiempo Loco] \u00bfC\u00f3mo elabora el pron\u00f3stico trimestral el Servicio Meteorol\u00f3gico Nacional? - El Regional<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/elregionalvm.com.ar\/noticias-villa-maria\/tiempo-loco-como-elabora-el-pronostico-trimestral-el-servicio-meteorologico-nacional\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"[Tiempo Loco] \u00bfC\u00f3mo elabora el pron\u00f3stico trimestral el Servicio Meteorol\u00f3gico Nacional? - El Regional\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El pron\u00f3stico clim\u00e1tico trimestral se realiza sobre la base del an\u00e1lisis de las previsiones num\u00e9ricas experimentales de los principales modelos globales de simulaci\u00f3n del clima y modelos estad\u00edsticos nacionales, sumado al an\u00e1lisis de la evoluci\u00f3n de las condiciones oce\u00e1nicas y atmosf\u00e9ricas. 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