{"id":40132,"date":"2021-06-27T22:11:40","date_gmt":"2021-06-27T22:11:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/elregionalvm.com.ar\/noticias-villa-maria\/?p=40132"},"modified":"2021-06-30T21:36:55","modified_gmt":"2021-06-30T21:36:55","slug":"dolar-a-256-la-fiebre-por-la-moneda-protagonista-en-un-ano-electoral","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/elregionalvm.com.ar\/noticias-villa-maria\/dolar-a-256-la-fiebre-por-la-moneda-protagonista-en-un-ano-electoral\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfD\u00f3lar a $256? La fiebre por la moneda protagonista en un a\u00f1o electoral"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

La fiebre del d\u00f3lar volvi\u00f3 a estar en tapas de todos los medios durante este fin de semana. Y es que nuevamente manifest\u00f3 un \u201cincremento\u201d de $10 en los \u00faltimos d\u00edas llegando a cerrar el viernes pasado en $175.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Escribe: Julio C\u00e9sar Nieto<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seg\u00fan n\u00fameros oficiales, US$250.400 millones salieron de los bancos hacia otros lugares. Las restricciones monetarias y al tipo de cambio cada vez m\u00e1s exigente en el pa\u00eds lleva a que cada vez m\u00e1s ahorristas decidan atesorar la moneda norteamericana por fuera del sistema bancario, sea volc\u00e1ndolo a las criptomonedas, al exterior o el famoso colch\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lo \u201cfugado\u201d equivale a casi 100 veces el pago postergado de la deuda al Club de Par\u00eds, o 5 veces lo que se le debe en su totalidad al Fondo Monetario Internacional y casi seis veces las reservas del Banco Central.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El descenso<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La semana pasada la empresa MSCI baj\u00f3 a la Argentina a una categor\u00eda peor de la que se esperaba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) empresa que elabora \u00edndices burs\u00e1tiles ubic\u00f3 a la Argentina en \u201cstandalone\u201d, tambi\u00e9n conocida como Mercados Independientes. Esta es una categor\u00eda por debajo de los Mercados de Frontera, casi – usando t\u00e9rminos futbol\u00edsticos- como pasar de jugar de la B a hacerlo en la D.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tras el \u00abdescenso\u00bb, las acciones argentinas en Wall Street se desplomaron hasta el 8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pero la pregunta e inc\u00f3gnita de cu\u00e1nto aguantar\u00e1 la brecha entre tipo de cambio oficial y el blue envuelve todo en una gran suspicacia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No hay sorpresas<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si consideramos el \u00faltimo pico del d\u00f3lar en octubre del 2020, cuando la divisa toc\u00f3 los $190, a junio de este a\u00f1o, previo al salto del viernes pasado en $174, notamos que el \u201cverde\u201d retrocedi\u00f3 en relaci\u00f3n a todos los dem\u00e1s bienes de la econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La inflaci\u00f3n acumulada desde octubre de 2020 a junio de este a\u00f1o oscila en el orden del 35%. Si tomanos dicho porcentaje y lo ajust\u00e1semos al tipo de cambio (hoy contenido por el Banco Central) nos arroja un incremento del $66, lo que colocar\u00eda el d\u00f3lar en una cotizaci\u00f3n de $256.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La \u201csubida\u201d o re-acomodamiento del d\u00f3lar no deber\u00eda sorprender, ya que contrario a los dem\u00e1s bienes y por una fuerte (pero insostenible) intervenci\u00f3n del Estado baj\u00f3 en un 35%, lo que conlleva naturalmente a que la divisa norteamericana busque ubicarse en una cotizaci\u00f3n conforme a la inflaci\u00f3n que en la interanual ya se ubica en un 50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El d\u00f3lar, moneda de facto por desgracia del peso, ser\u00e1 la protagonista en un turbulento a\u00f1o electoral donde una vez sucedida la contienda prevista para septiembre y noviembre se mostrar\u00e1 tal cual es.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La fiebre del d\u00f3lar volvi\u00f3 a estar en tapas de todos los medios durante este fin de semana. Y es que nuevamente manifest\u00f3 un \u201cincremento\u201d de $10 en los \u00faltimos d\u00edas llegando a cerrar el viernes pasado en $175. Escribe: Julio C\u00e9sar Nieto Seg\u00fan n\u00fameros oficiales, US$250.400 millones salieron de los bancos hacia otros lugares. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":40133,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[2067,3557],"tags":[3280,5556,903,9773,467,1373,3282],"class_list":["post-40132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","category-tercera","tag-banco-central","tag-criptomonedas","tag-dolar","tag-fiebre-del-dolar","tag-fmi","tag-moneda","tag-reservas"],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfD\u00f3lar a $256? 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